709 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 061435
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
 800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014
 
 Simon's cloud pattern continues to deteriorate...with almost all of
 the remaining deep convection displaced well to the east and north
 of the low-level center.  Using a blend of Dvorak T-numbers from
 TAFB and SAB yields a current intensity estimate of 40 kt.  The
 vertical shear over the cyclone is currently near 25 kt, and is
 forecast to increase to 40-50 kt within the next couple of days.
 Given the hostile dynamical environment, continued steady weakening
 is expected.  The official forecast shows Simon becoming a remnant
 low in 36 hours, although this event may well occur sooner than
 that.
 
 The motion is now just east of due north or 010/6 kt.  Simon is
 moving along the northwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level
 anticyclone.  An approaching shortwave trough should cause the
 cyclone to move north-northeastward, with the remnant low moving
 across the northern Baja California peninsula and then into extreme
 northwestern mainland Mexico and the southwestern United States over
 the next couple of days.  The official track forecast follows the
 dynamical model consensus, TVCE, rather closely.
 
 Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
 rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
 with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
 California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
 Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
 the next few days.  Please refer to statements from your local
 weather office for information on hazards specific to your area.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/1500Z 25.1N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  07/0000Z 25.9N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  07/1200Z 27.0N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  08/0000Z 28.1N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  08/1200Z 29.4N 114.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  09/1200Z 32.0N 112.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch