Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 001 
 WTNT45 KNHC 290254
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
 1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010
  
 SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS
 BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED
 CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
 TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
 HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE
 OF HOURS.  THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT
 AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC.  BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
 BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE
 EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  SINCE THERE IS
 ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
 SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE
 SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL
 CYCLONE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20.  IT APPEARS THAT
 THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION.
 SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
 THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS
 EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE
 NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
 MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
 IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
 FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE
 SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF.  FOR NOW THE SLOWER
 SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN
 THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
 CYCLONE.  MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
 DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
 STRENGTHENING.  AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN
 EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.  THE GLOBAL
 MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS
 AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
 SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0300Z 27.3N  63.7W    35 KT
  12HR VT     29/1200Z 29.6N  65.4W    40 KT
  24HR VT     30/0000Z 32.8N  63.9W    45 KT
  36HR VT     30/1200Z 35.5N  60.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48HR VT     31/0000Z 39.3N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72HR VT     01/0000Z 43.5N  45.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96HR VT     02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for SHARY

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman