865 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 252037
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016
 
 Seymour has continued to intensify since the last advisory, with
 the 15 n mi wide eye continuing to become better defined inside the
 central dense overcast.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB,
 SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus are all 115 kt, so that is
 the initial intensity for this advisory.  The hurricane currently
 has good cirrus outflow in all directions except to the south.
 
 Seymour is expected to remain within an area of low wind shear and
 over SSTs of around 28C for the next 12-18 hours, and thus some
 additional strengthening is possible.  After 18 hours, increasing
 southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause steady to rapid
 weakening.  The majority of the guidance continues to show Seymour
 weakening below hurricane strength in less than 72 hours,
 degenerating to a remnant low by 96 hours, and dissipating
 completely by 120 hours.  The new intensity forecast is an update
 of the previous forecast and again lies near the upper end of the
 intensity guidance.
 
 The initial motion is still 275/12.  A mid- to upper-level ridge
 extending westward from Mexico is expected to steer Seymour westward
 to west-northwestward for another 12-24 hours.  Subsequently, a
 deep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific is expected to cause
 a break in the ridge, with Seymour turning northwestward and
 northward into the break.  Most of the track guidance suggests the
 forward motion should slow after 48 hours as Seymour shears apart,
 and it now suggests that the hurricane should turn more westward
 before dissipation as it is steered by low-level easterly flow.  The
 new forecast track is similar to the previous track for the first 72
 hours, then it is shifted a little westward at the 96 hour point.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/2100Z 15.7N 116.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
  12H  26/0600Z 16.2N 118.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  26/1800Z 17.2N 120.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  27/0600Z 18.5N 121.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  27/1800Z 19.9N 122.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  28/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  29/1800Z 21.5N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven