126 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 102040
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  46
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018
 
 The organization of the cloud pattern has remained unchanged during
 the day, except that the deep convection has continued to weaken.
 Nevertheless, Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an
 initial intensity of 55 kt. Some fluctuations in intensity are
 likely during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is over relatively
 warm waters and is embedded in a low shear environment. Since both
 of these factors will become unfavorable in about 12 to 24 hours,
 the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Sergio, however, is expected
 to still be a tropical storm by the time it approaches the Baja
 California peninsula. After that time, Sergio will move over
 mainland Mexico and weaken much faster.
 
 Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 12 kt. The
 cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated
 with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will
 continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in
 forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened
 Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in
 about a day and half, but winds will reach the coast a little bit
 earlier. Track models continue to be in very good agreement, and
 consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast
 remains unchanged and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
 to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
 mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
 Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
 weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see
 products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
 forecast office.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/2100Z 19.2N 122.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  12/1800Z 29.0N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
  72H  13/1800Z 33.0N 101.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  96H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila