700
WTPZ21 KNHC 100837
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.2W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N 97.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 124.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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