464 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 100842
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  44
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018
 
 This morning's conventional satellite presentation reveals little
 change in Sergio's cloud pattern. The majority of the deep
 convection resides in the north portion of the circulation with some
 new bursts developing in the south semicircle. Consequently, the
 initial intensity will be kept again at 60 kt, and is supported by
 the TAFB and SAB Dvorak intensity estimates.
 
 Gradual spin down of the cyclone is still expected to commence soon
 as Sergio begins its trek over decreasing sea surface temperatures
 and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a
 drier mid-level troposphere. Over the weekend, after quickly moving
 over the central Baja California peninsula, Sergio should weaken
 further over the state of Sonora in northwestern Mexico, degenerate
 into a remnant low early Sunday, and is forecast to dissipate over
 the Southern Plains of the United States, although this dissipation
 could occur sooner, as indicated in the European global models.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 065/10
 kt, within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by a
 mid-latitude trough extending southwestward over the eastern Pacific
 from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue to
 accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next few
 days, and approach Baja California Sur on early Friday. The NHC
 forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is
 close to the various multi-model consensus aids.
 
 The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will
 likely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
 mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern
 Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information
 about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather
 Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/0900Z 17.5N 124.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  96H  14/0600Z 34.5N  97.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts