802 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 090241
 TCDEP1
 
 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  39
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018
 
 Conventional satellite visible and enhanced BD-curve infrared
 imagery reveal a rather large, curved band feature outlining
 about 90 percent of what once was an enclosed ragged eye.  This
 primary band is still producing very cold cloud tops, and the
 satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the initial
 intensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory.
 
 Sergio should very slowly spin down during the next 36 hours as it
 traverses marginally conducive oceanic temperatures.  Beyond that
 period, Sergio should enter a region of much cooler sea surface
 temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear, which should induce
 further weakening and at a faster rate.  Toward the end of the week,
 Sergio is forecast to move inland over the central Baja California
 peninsula and into northernwestern Mexico in 4 days.  At which time,
 the cyclone will quickly weaken and degenerate into a remnant low
 over the southwestern United States.  Moisture associated with the
 remnants of Sergio is expected to affect northwestern Mexico and
 portions of the southwest United States over the weekend and could
 potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region.  For more
 information about this potential hazard, see products from the
 Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/3 kt.
 Sergio should begin accelerating northeastward Tuesday, and
 approach the central Baja California peninsula in about 3 days.
 The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is
 close to the various multi-model consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0300Z 16.0N 128.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  13/0000Z 29.3N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 120H  14/0000Z 35.4N  99.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts