723 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 080236
 TCDEP1
 
 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  35
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
 800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018
 
 Sergio still has its annular-like structure, but the surrounding
 convection is not as strong as earlier today. Dvorak objective and
 subjective numbers only support 80 kt at this time. Little
 significant change in strength is anticipated during the next 12 to
 24 hours while the waters are still relatively warm. In about 2
 days, the cyclone should encounter cooler waters, and a weakening
 trend at a faster rate is anticipated. Sergio is forecast to be a
 tropical storm by the time it is approaching the Baja California
 peninsula.
 
 Sergio is currently embedded within light steering currents and
 is barely moving toward the northwest at 3 kt. A northward drift is
 expected during the next 24 hours, but after that time, a broad
 mid-level trough is forecast to amplify over the west coast of the
 U.S., and this flow pattern should force Sergio to recurve
 northeastward with increasing forward speed.  The track guidance is
 in remarkably good agreement, basically on top of each other for the
 next 3 days, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. Beyond
 3 days, models are in less agreement, but still bring the cyclone
 very near the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in 4
 days or so.  The NHC forecast is not very different from the
 previous one and is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0300Z 14.9N 127.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  12/0000Z 25.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  13/0000Z 32.0N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila