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 873 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 071437
 TCDEP1
 
 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  33
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018
 
 Somewhat quickly and unexpectedly, Sergio took on the appearance of
 an annular hurricane overnight. The eye of the hurricane expanded,
 nearly doubling in size (now 70 n mi across), and most of the
 banding features disappeared. However, IR imagery over the past
 hour or two indicates that the hurricane is still somewhat
 asymmetrical, suggesting that the hurricane may not have a classical
 annular structure, at least not yet. The initial intensity has been
 lowered to 90 kt, in agreement with the latest current intensity
 estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
 The hurricane continues to move due west with an initial forward
 speed of 7 kt. Sergio is still expected to slow down and turn first
 northward, and then northeastward over the next couple of days. By
 mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough moving southward off coast of
 California should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward toward
 the Baja California peninsula. The global models remain in fairly
 good agreement on the track of the cyclone through the middle of
 next week, and only small changes were made to the NHC track
 forecast to move it closer to the model consensus.
 
 As long as Sergio can maintain its annular-like structure, only slow
 weakening is anticipated due to continued effects of ocean upwelling
 combined with the slow forward motion of the hurricane. By the end
 of the forecast period, Sergio will be moving over much cooler SSTs
 located west of the Baja California peninsula, and a faster
 weakening rate is forecast. Given the lower initial intensity of
 Sergio, the official intensity forecast is a little lower for the
 first two days of the forecast, but is very similar beyond that
 time.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/1500Z 14.5N 126.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  08/0000Z 14.8N 127.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  08/1200Z 15.2N 128.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  09/0000Z 15.9N 128.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  09/1200Z 16.7N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  10/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  11/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  12/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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