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 543 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 041444
 TCDEP1
 
 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  21
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018
 
 Sergio remains a strong hurricane this morning, with subjective
 Dvorak estimates range from 5.5 (102 kt) to 6.5 (127 kt).  While
 some slightly drier air has been ingested into the eyewall, cloud
 top temperatures have cooled recently and Sergio appears poised to
 once again close off this dry air channel.  Based on these data, the
 initial intensity is held at 120 kt.  The intensity forecast is
 mostly a continuation of the previous advisory, but is slightly
 lower after 24 hours to reflect a blend of HCCA and other consensus
 aids. Vertical wind shear from GFS/SHIPS is forecast to remain at or
 below approximately 10 kt through 48 hours before increasing to
 above 15 kt by Saturday. The primary limiter on Sergio's intensity
 appears to be SSTs which will drop off gradually, especially by the
 end of the forecast.
 
 Sergio is continuing to move northwestward around the mid-level
 ridge which extends into the Pacific off of Mexico.  The initial
 motion is 320/8 kt.  Objective track guidance is in fairly good
 agreement on a gradual turn toward the west tonight and Friday in
 response to a second ridge which builds in from the west.  Guidance
 remains in decent agreement on Sergio then turning back
 northeastward by the end of the forecast period as this ridge lifts
 northward and a highly-amplified mid-level trough digs into western
 North America.  The official track forecast is very similar to the
 previous advisory through day 4 with a small shift eastward
 thereafter to reflect a slightly earlier northeast turn in the
 guidance.  This track philosophy is supported by essentially all of
 the ECMWF/GFS ensemble members as well.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/1500Z 15.0N 119.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  05/0000Z 15.6N 120.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  05/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  06/0000Z 16.0N 122.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  06/1200Z 15.7N 124.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  07/1200Z 15.6N 126.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  08/1200Z 16.3N 128.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  09/1200Z 17.9N 127.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Onderlinde/Cangialosi
 
 
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