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 262 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 031432
 TCDEP1
 
 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  17
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018
 
 Sergio has intensified this morning, with the eye becoming better
 defined while embedded in very cold cloud tops.  The upper-level
 outflow is restricted to the northeast of the hurricane, but strong
 over the southern part of the circulation.  Using a blend of
 objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the advisory intensity
 estimate is 110 kt.  Sergio will remain over warm waters of nearly
 29 deg C,  with moderate shear and a humid mid-level air mass for
 the next day or so.  Thus, some additional strengthening is forecast
 in the short term.  In a couple of days, slightly cooler waters and
 some entrainment of dry air is likely to cause a gradual weakening
 trend to begin.  The NHC forecast is at the high end of the
 intensity model guidance, and shows Sergio remaining a hurricane
 throughout the entire forecast period.
 
 The hurricane has turned toward the northwest, and is now moving at
 about 305/9 kt.  This turn is probably being caused by a weakness in
 the mid-level ridge associated with a trough nearing southern
 California.  As the trough moves away from the area, the global
 models predict that a ridge will rebuild to the north of Sergio in
 a couple of days.  This should result in a turn toward the
 west-northwest and west at 48 hours and beyond.  The official track
 forecast is close to the simple and corrected dynamical model
 consensus predictions.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/1500Z 12.9N 117.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  07/1200Z 16.3N 127.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  08/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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