283 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 022032
 TCDEP1
 
 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  14
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018
 
 Sergio has intensified significantly today.  The eye of the
 hurricane has become better defined, and is embedded in very cold
 convective cloud tops.  Outer banding features are also well
 defined.  Upper-tropospheric outflow is strong over the western and
 southern portions of the circulation, and a little restricted to
 the northeast.  The advisory intensity is set, probably
 conservatively, to 100 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from
 SAB.  Only modest northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio
 over the next few days.  That, along with warm waters and a very
 moist middle troposphere, should be conducive for further
 strengthening.  The official forecast is near the upper end of the
 intensity guidance model suite.
 
 The system continues moving mostly westward, or 280/11 kt.  There
 is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous
 couple of advisory packages.  A mid-level ridge to the north of
 Sergio should weaken within the next 12 to 24 hours as a broad
 trough drops in from the northwest.  These changes in the steering
 flow should cause the hurricane to turn toward the west-northwest by
 this evening or tonight, and to begin moving northwestward on
 Wednesday.  The official track forecast is is very similar to the
 previous one and, again, follows the latest multi-model consensus.
 
 Some slight enlargements to the wind radii were made over the
 eastern semicircle of Sergio based on scatterometer data.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/2100Z 11.2N 115.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
  48H  04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
  72H  05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  06/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  07/1800Z 16.5N 128.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch