893 
 WTNT44 KNHC 110236
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
 1100 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011
  
 SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE PROVIDED MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY
 OF SEAN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON ONE HAND...VERTICAL SHEAR OF
 ABOUT 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS HAS DISPLACED THE MID-LEVEL
 CENTER EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AS SEEN IN RECENT MICROWAVE
 IMAGERY FROM THE FNMOC TC WEBPAGE. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
 HAVE COOLED AND EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
 THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT IN
 AGREEMENT WITH 00Z DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE NHC
 FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...IN
 AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. BY 24 HOURS...SEAN SHOULD BE
 ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST
 COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
  
 RECENT DVORAK AND MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
 HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
 AN INITIAL MOTION OF 060/11. THIS RIGHTWARD JOG SHOULD BE TEMPORARY
 HOWEVER...AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
 DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
 AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
 GIVEN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
 HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTHEAST...OF THE PREVIOUS
 ONE...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE
 TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0300Z 31.5N  68.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 33.6N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN