711 
 WTNT43 KNHC 290248
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
 
 THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
 ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
 REPORTING A 25-35 MILE WIDE EYE WITH AN OPEN EYEWALL.  HOWEVER...
 THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE STORM ARE NOT OCCURRING IN THE
 EYEWALL...AS THE NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT FOUND A LARGE
 AREA OF AT LEAST 60 KT SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 100-120 N MI SOUTHWEST
 OF THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED 700-MB
 FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 102 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...AND THE
 LIKELIHOOD THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT.
 
 SANDY HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
 WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 035/12.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
 TRACK GUIDANCE OR THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
 WITH SANDY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
 AND NORTHWESTWARD ON MONDAY.  THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER
 NEAR OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN ABOUT 30 HOURS...
 AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AN EARLIER
 LANDFALL TIME THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AFTER LANDFALL...SANDY
 IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE
 EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD.  A TURN TOWARD
 THE EAST IS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF SANDY
 SURVIVES THAT LONG.
 
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER SANDY...AND THE CENTER IS
 MOVING OVER A LOCALLY WARMER PATCH OF WATER.  THESE CONDITIONS MAY
 HAVE ALLOWED THE EYEWALL FORMATION...AND THEY COULD LEAD TO SOME
 STRENGTHENING IN ADDITION TO THAT CAUSED BY BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. 
 HOWEVER...SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR DATA SHOW THAT THE PROCESS OF
 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BEGINNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD
 FRONT NOW INTERACTING WITH THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THIS
 TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN 24 HOURS...BUT IT WILL
 NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE
 STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...AND FLOODING RAINS
 ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM.  SANDY IS EXPECTED
 TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.
  
 AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
 CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
 POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
 AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
 WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/0300Z 34.5N  70.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  29/1200Z 36.4N  70.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  30/0000Z 38.7N  73.2W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  30/1200Z 39.8N  75.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  31/0000Z 40.6N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  01/0000Z 43.5N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  02/0000Z 45.5N  75.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  03/0000Z 46.0N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN