674 
 WTNT43 KNHC 282056
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
 500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
  
 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE NO
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY OF SANDY HAS OCCURRED THIS
 AFTERNOON...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AT
 951-952 MB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
 WINDS OF 78 KT WERE MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...BUT NO
 SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WERE DETECTED IN ANY
 QUADRANT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD OF
 SANDY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT MISSED SOME OF THE POCKETS
 OF STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 BEING MAINTAINED AT 65 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/13 KT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
 HAS COME IN NEARLY ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...SO THERE
 REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
 SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
 SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
 TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 48
 HOURS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT SANDY TO ITS SOUTH...THE
 HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
 FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT
 RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...ALBEIT
 SLIGHTLY FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
 TIGHTLY PACKED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL FORECASTS.
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN
 DECREASING...AND SOME WEAK OUTFLOW IS NOW APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN
 SEMICIRCLE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND AS A RESULT SANDY IS EXPECTED
 MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE
 HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 25C. IN ABOUT 24
 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME BAROCLINIC DEEPENING AS SANDY
 BEGINS ITS TURN TOWARD THE COAST. A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
 CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS
 TRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS
 WEATHER SYSTEM.
  
 AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
 CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
 POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
 AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
 WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/2100Z 33.4N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 35.0N  70.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  29/1800Z 37.7N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  30/0600Z 39.5N  74.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  30/1800Z 40.2N  76.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  31/1800Z 42.7N  76.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  01/1800Z 44.7N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  02/1800Z 45.6N  71.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART