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 471 
 WTNT43 KNHC 280246
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
 SANDY HAS INCREASED DURING THE EVENING.  IN ADDITION...DATA FROM AIR
 FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
 CIRCULATION AT 10000-12000 FT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND
 THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN INNER WIND MAXIMUM NEAR THE CONVECTION. 
 HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN ANY INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED
 PRESSURE IS ABOUT 960 MB. 
 
 SANDY HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 040/12.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE
 IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  SANDY IS EXPECTED
 TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...
 STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
 STATES.  AFTER THAT...A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
 NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND INTERACTION WITH THE U. S. TROUGH SHOULD
 CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND
 EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER
 INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS.  AFTER
 LANDFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE U. S. TROUGH TO FORM
 A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA...WITH THE RESULTING SYSTEM
 MOVING NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS.  AS NOTED IN THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
 TRACK...BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE
 IMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
 
 SANDY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE CAUSED BY
 A TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  THIS IS LIKELY HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE
 HURRICANE DESPITE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  WHILE THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS...
 THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
 THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE DURING THIS TIME...AND IF THAT HAPPENS
 SANDY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AFTER 36
 HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL FORECAST THAT INTERACTION WITH THE
 U. S. TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE SOME INTENSIFICATION ALONG WITH
 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY 48
 HOURS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL HAVE LITTLE
 EFFECT ON THE SIZE AND IMPACTS OF THIS LARGE AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM. 
 AFTER LANDFALL...THE FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
 STEADILY WEAKEN.
  
 AS ALSO NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN ORDER TO AVOID THE RISK
 OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL
 WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH
 OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED
 THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/0300Z 30.9N  74.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 32.2N  72.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  29/0000Z 34.1N  71.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  29/1200Z 36.3N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  30/0000Z 38.7N  72.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  31/0000Z 40.5N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  01/0000Z 43.5N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  02/0000Z 47.5N  75.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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