106 
 WTNT43 KNHC 232035
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE
 BANDING FEATURES...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
 CIRCULATION OF THE STORM.  THE CENTER OF SANDY IS ESTIMATED TO BE
 LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE
 OVERCAST FEATURE...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF WESTERLY SHEAR
 OVER THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT
 IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
 LAND INTERACTION BEING THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT.  BY 72 HOURS...
 SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30
 KT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND
 LGEM GUIDANCE.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS
 SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE DERIVING SOME ENERGY FROM
 BAROCLINIC SOURCES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS POST-TROPICAL
 STATUS AT DAY 5.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
 OR 020/5.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK FORECAST.  AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY
 CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON A
 NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN
 FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHARP
 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO WEST OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
 STORM ON A NORTHWARD TRACK...NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.  LATER IN
 THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS
 EXPECTED TO CAUSE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
 THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXPANDING WIND RADII SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL
 STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
 AND THE KEYS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  23/2100Z 14.3N  77.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  24/0600Z 15.7N  77.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  24/1800Z 17.9N  77.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  25/0600Z 20.3N  76.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
  48H  25/1800Z 22.8N  76.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER
  72H  26/1800Z 26.3N  76.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  27/1800Z 29.5N  73.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  28/1800Z 32.0N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH