595 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 271435
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
 800 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
 
 The coverage of cold cloud tops within the CDO of Sandra continues
 to decrease, and the southwestern portion of the CDO has eroded due
 to about 30 kt of southwesterly shear. An 1133Z SSMIS image also
 showed that the eye had become less distinct. Dvorak intensity
 estimates continue to decrease, and based on a blend of the latest
 Final-T and CI numbers the initial intensity has been lowered to 85
 kt, and this could be a bit generous. Quick weakening is expected
 during the next 24 hours as the shear is forecast to increase to 40
 to 45 kt. This should result in the low-level circulation of Sandra
 decoupling from the mid-level circulation before it reaches the
 coast. Sandra is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today
 and continue to weaken as it approaches the coast of Mexico in about
 24 hours, but is still expected to be a tropical storm.  After
 landfall, the low-level circulation should quickly dissipate,
 although a 36-hour forecast point was provided to show the system
 moving inland. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of
 the HWRF, SHIPS and LGEM models.
 
 Sandra has moved to the right of the previous forecast track, and
 the initial motion estimate is 030/10. Sandra should continue to
 recurve between a mid-level ridge centered over the western Gulf of
 Mexico and a broad deep-layer trough over western North America.
 Given the initial motion, the new NHC track forecast has been
 adjusted to the right of the previous one and now lies to the right
 of the latest multi-model consensus. The official forecast favors
 the GFS and HWRF models, which have the best handle on the initial
 motion. This adjustment to the track will bring the center of Sandra
 to the coast of Mexico in about 24 hours.
 
 Given the eastward shift in the forecast track and the expectation
 that Sandra will still be a tropical storm as it nears the coast,
 the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for Las
 Islas Marias and part of the coasts of the states of Sinaloa and
 Nayarit. Regardless of Sandra's intensity at landfall, the main
 threat will be heavy rains across portions of several Mexican
 states.
 
 The remnant mid- and upper-level moisture associated with Sandra
 will contribute to a significant precipitation event expected to
 occur over portions of the south-central United States this weekend.
 For more information, please see products from the NOAA Weather
 Prediction Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/1500Z 19.6N 108.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  28/0000Z 21.4N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  28/1200Z 23.5N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  29/0000Z 25.8N 105.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  48H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan