Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 559 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 270834
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
 200 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
 
 It appears that the strong shear is finally affecting the structure
 of the hurricane. The cloud pattern has rapidly deteriorated and the
 eye is no longer observed. In fact, most of the deep convection is
 now on the northeastern portion of the cyclone. Both objective and
 subjective numbers are decreasing, and the initial intensity has
 been lowered to 90 kt.  The shear is forecast to increase even more,
 and most of the global models continue to separate the surface
 center from the mid-level circulation. As suggested by guidance, the
 NHC forecast calls for weakening and brings Sandra near the coast of
 mainland Mexico below tropical storm strength.
 
 Satellite fixes indicate that Sandra has been moving toward the
 north-northeast of 020 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone is already
 embedded within the broad southwesterly flow ahead of a large
 mid-latitude trough, and no significant change in the steering
 pattern is anticipated. On this basis, the NHC forecast keeps this
 general motion until the center of the cyclone reaches the coast of
 Mexico in about 36 hours. The NHC forecast is a little bit east of
 the previous one, and is basically on top of the multi-model
 consensus. The ECMWF model has shifted a little bit eastward
 in the last run, but still is on the western edge of dynamical
 guidance envelope.
 
 Given the eastward shift in the forecast track, the expected
 weakening, and the likely decay of the wind field to the west of
 the center, it is becoming less likely that a tropical storm warning
 will be required for southern the Baja California peninsula later
 this morning.
 
 Regardless of the intensity of Sandra, heavy rains over portions of
 Mexico, the remnant mid-/upper-level moisture associated with
 the cyclone will contribute to a significant precipitation event
 expected to occur over portions of the south-central United States
 this weekend. For more information on this event, please see
 products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and local NWS
 Weather Forecast Offices.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0900Z 18.9N 109.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 20.5N 108.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 22.3N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  28/1800Z 24.2N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  29/0600Z 26.5N 107.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for SANDRA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman