459 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 260239
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
 800 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015
 
 The intensification of Sandra seems to have slowed during the past
 few hours.  The cloud tops in the eyewall have continued to cool
 with temperatures now colder than -80C.  However, as this has
 occurred the eye has become less distinct.  Satellite intensity
 estimates are 115 kt from SAB and 102 kt from TAFB, and there is a
 recent CIMSS ADT estimate of 110 kt.  A blend of these data is used
 for the initial intensity of 105 kt.
 
 The initial motion is now 320/7.  Sandra is moving around the
 western end of a mid- to upper-level ridge over southern Mexico, and
 during the next 96 hours it should move into southwesterly flow
 between the ridge and a deep-layer trough over the western United
 States.  While the guidance is generally in good agreement with
 this scenario,  there remains some spread between the slower and
 farther west ECMWF and the faster and farther east GFS.  As seen in
 the previous advisory, this is due to the GFS keeping Sandra a
 stronger system than does the ECMWF.  The new track forecast is
 more or less an update of the previous forecast, but remains slower
 than the model consensus in deference to the ECMWF, whose weaker
 forecast again looks more realistic at this time.  The new forecast
 has the center of Sandra passing near the southern end of the Baja
 California peninsula between 48-72 hours and subsequently moving
 into mainland Mexico between 72-96 hours.
 
 Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. After that,
 Sandra is expected to encounter rapidly increasing southwesterly
 vertical wind shear, which should cause rapid weakening as the
 center approaches Baja California and mainland Mexico.  The new
 intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus IVCN through 48
 hours, and then it is a little stronger than the guidance at 72
 hours.  After Sandra makes landfall in Mexico, it is forecast to
 dissipate quickly over the mountains.
 
 Although Sandra is forecast to weaken, it is still too soon to know
 exactly how it will affect portions of the southern Baja California
 peninsula or the west coast of mainland Mexico.  Watches will not
 be required on this advisory.  However, interests in those areas
 should continue to monitor the progress of Sandra.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/0300Z 13.6N 110.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  26/1200Z 14.9N 110.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  27/0000Z 16.7N 111.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  27/1200Z 18.5N 110.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  28/0000Z 20.4N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  29/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  30/0000Z 28.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven