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 250 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 250839
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
 200 AM MST WED NOV 25 2015
 
 Although an eye is not apparent on infrared imagery, the cloud
 pattern has continued to become better organized with the center of
 the cyclone embedded within an area of very deep convection. The
 outflow pattern continues to be established in all quadrants. Based
 on the average of objective estimates from CIMSS and subjective
 Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been
 increased to 75 kt. The wind radii was adjusted based on a recent
 ASCAT B pass, which shows that the cyclone is a little smaller in
 size than previously estimated.
 
 The hurricane will be within a very favorable environment of low
 shear during the next 36 hours. In fact, the Rapid Intensification
 Index of the SHIPS model continues to show better than 60 percent
 chance of a 40 kt increase in the winds during the next 24 hours.
 Then, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening. Beyond 36 hours, the
 hurricane will encounter strong shear and a rapid weakening should
 begin, and Sandra is forecast to be below hurricane strength before
 it reaches the coast of Mexico.
 
 The best estimate of the initial motion is 295 degrees at 9 kt. The
 subtropical ridge which is controlling the west-northwest motion
 of Sandra will shift eastward and weaken. This forecast pattern
 should force the cyclone to turn northwestward and northward around
 the ridge later today. The cyclone is expected to reach the
 mid-latitude westerlies in about 48 hours, and it should then
 sharply turn to the north-northeast and northeast toward the coast
 of Mexico. This is the solution provided by most of the guidance and
 is very similar to the previous NHC forecast.
 
 Although Sandra is forecast to weaken, it is too soon to know
 exactly how Sandra will affect portions of the southern Baja
 California peninsula or the west coast of mainland Mexico. A watch
 may be required later today for portions of Mexico, and interests in
 those areas should monitor the progress of Sandra.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/0900Z 12.5N 109.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  25/1800Z 13.5N 109.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  26/0600Z 15.0N 110.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  26/1800Z 16.7N 111.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  27/0600Z 18.7N 110.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  28/0600Z 23.0N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  29/0600Z 26.5N 105.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 120H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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