914 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 282033
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
 200 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016
 
 Roslyn has developed a new burst of convection to the north of the
 exposed low-level center, and this is sufficient to keep the
 cyclone from degenerating to a remnant low.  Recent ASCAT data show
 winds near 30 kt in the northwestern quadrant, so the initial
 intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory.  A combination of
 decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track,
 abundant dry air seen in water vapor imagery, and 30-35 kt of shear
 should cause Roslyn to degenerate to a remnant low in 12 hours or
 less.  The latest dynamical models show the remnant low dissipating
 completely by 48 hours, and this is now reflected in the intensity
 forecast.
 
 The initial motion is now 360/6.  Roslyn should turn northwestward
 and then west-northwestward before dissipation as the weakening
 cyclone become increasingly steered by a low-level ridge to the
 north.  The new track forecast is essentially an update of the
 previous forecast.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/2100Z 21.6N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 22.4N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  29/1800Z 23.0N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  30/0600Z 23.3N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven