022 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 281443
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
 800 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016
 
 Roslyn has been weakening.  Deep convection associated with the
 cyclone dissipated late yesterday, and only a few puffs of new
 convection have redeveloped but are well removed to the northeast of
 the center.  A TAFB Dvorak CI of 2.0 is used to lower the initial
 intensity to 30 kt, and assumes some spin-down of the vortex since
 the overnight ASCAT pass that showed 35-kt winds.  With
 southwesterly shear of around 30 kt, increasing atmospheric
 stability and an extremely dry environment, and much cooler waters
 along the path of the cyclone, further weakening is likely.  Roslyn
 is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today, and the
 current intensity forecast is in good agreement with the guidance.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 035/09, though the shorter-term
 motion may be a bit more to the left.  To the extent that Roslyn
 remains a coupled cyclone, the motion should gradually turn
 northward today around a cut-off low well southwest of the
 California coast.  A turn toward the northwest is expected once the
 cyclone become a shallower feature, and its motion is governed by
 the low-level flow.  The track forecast is essentially an update of
 the previous one and is close to a multi-model consensus without
 the GFDL model.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/1500Z 21.0N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  29/0000Z 21.9N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  29/1200Z 22.9N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  30/0000Z 23.4N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  30/1200Z 23.6N 117.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain