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 556 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 280232
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016
 
 Roslyn is weakening this evening.  Strong southwesterly shear of
 nearly 30 kt is affecting the tropical storm, and this has caused
 the associated deep convection to be well removed to the
 north-northeast of the center.  The initial intensity is
 lowered a little to 35 kt, based on the latest Dvorak
 classifications from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at
 the University of Wisconsin.  The shear is expected to persist, or
 even increase a little, during the next few days.  These hostile
 winds combined with a stable atmosphere and decreasing sea surface
 temperatures should cause additional weakening.  Roslyn will likely
 weaken to a depression overnight or on Wednesday and become a
 remnant low shortly thereafter when it moves over sea surface
 temperatures below 26 deg C.  The NHC intensity forecast is the same
 as the previous one, and generally follows the global model
 guidance.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 040/8 kt.  Roslyn should turn
 northward soon as it rotates around a large cut off mid- to
 upper-level low near the northern Baja California peninsula.  Once
 the cyclone becomes a remnant low, it should turn northwestward in
 the low-level flow before it dissipates in 2 to 3 days.  The
 new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one,
 and lies closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0300Z 19.5N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 20.7N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  29/0000Z 21.8N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  29/1200Z 22.8N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  30/0000Z 23.6N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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