474 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 272032
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016
 
 Roslyn remains a heavily sheared tropical cyclone.  Satellite
 imagery shows that the cyclone's cloud pattern consists of a
 plume-shaped burst of deep convection, with the low-level center
 removed to the southwest of the convection due to 25 kt of
 southwesterly shear.  Dvorak satellite classifications are unchanged
 since earlier, T2.5 from SAB and T3.0 from TAFB.  Thus the initial
 intensity remains 40 kt.
 
 The vertical shear associated with a mid- to upper-tropospheric
 cyclone over the northern Baja California peninsula is expected to
 increase further over Roslyn during the next 24 hours.  In addition,
 SSTs should gradually be decreasing along the cyclone's path while
 Roslyn encounters a much drier and more stable air mass.  These
 factors suggest that weakening should commence soon, and it could
 occur rather quickly.  Remnant low status is now shown in 24 hours,
 with dissipation by day 3.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a
 little lower than the previous one, and just below the multi-model
 consensus.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 050/08.  Roslyn should turn
 northward during the next 12 to 24 hours as it rotates around the
 large circulation of the cutoff low retrograding into the
 northeastern Pacific southwest of California.  Once the system is
 sheared off in about 24 hours, the much shallower remnant low should
 turn northwestward before dissipation.  The new track forecast has
 been shifted some to the right and is close to a blend of the ECMWF
 and GFS model solutions.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/2100Z 18.8N 116.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  28/0600Z 19.8N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  28/1800Z 21.0N 116.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  29/0600Z 22.0N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  29/1800Z 22.8N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain