829 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 270234
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
 800 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016
 
 Southwesterly shear of about 20 kt is currently affecting Roslyn,
 and this has caused the associated convection to be confined to the
 north and northeast portions of the large circulation.  The initial
 wind speed is held at 45 kt, based on the earlier ASCAT data, but
 the satellite presentation suggests that this could be a little
 generous.  Weakening is expected to begin soon due to a further
 increase in shear and continued dry air entrainment.  Roslyn will
 likely become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours when it moves over
 sea surface temperatures lower than 26 deg C.  The NHC intensity
 forecast is identical to the previous one, and generally follows
 the global model guidance.
 
 Visible satellite images and microwave data suggest that Roslyn is
 moving east-northeastward at 4 kt.  During the next day or so, the
 tropical storm is expected to move northeastward in the flow between
 a large mid- to upper-level cut off low near the northern Baja
 California peninsula and a ridge over central Mexico.  After that
 time, a turn to the north and northwest is expected when the
 shallow cyclone becomes influenced by the low-level flow.  The NHC
 track forecast is adjusted a little to the east of the previous
 one, trending toward the latest consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0300Z 17.2N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  27/1200Z 17.9N 117.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  28/0000Z 19.1N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  28/1200Z 20.5N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  29/0000Z 21.7N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  30/0000Z 23.5N 118.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi