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 276 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 020851
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Depression Rosa Discussion Number  29
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018
 
 Satellite imagery continues to show a lack of convection near
 the center of Rosa this morning.  The remaining convection is
 located well northeast of the center, and is spreading inland over
 northern Mexico and portions of the Desert Southwest.  A couple of
 partial ASCAT passes revealed an area of 25-30 kt winds over the
 central Gulf of California, and this is the basis for reducing the
 initial intensity to 30 kt.  The data also suggest that the
 circulation has become elongated and that a new center may be
 forming near the northeastern coast of the Baja California
 peninsula.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 030/9 kt.  Rosa is expected to move
 northeastward between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a
 mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific. These
 steering features should bring the center of Rosa across the
 northern Gulf of California and into northern Mexico this afternoon.
 Southwesterly shear and land interaction should cause the cyclone to
 continue to weaken today, and Rosa is expected to dissipate over
 northern Mexico or southwestern Arizona by tonight.
 
 Although Rosa is forecast to weaken, the system is still expected
 to bring heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding to
 portions of northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest during
 the next day or so.
 
 
 Key Messages:
 
 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
 rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
 Desert Southwest.  These rains are expected to produce
 life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
 landslides in mountainous terrain.  For more information about
 potential rainfall in those areas, please see products from the
 Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/0900Z 29.3N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  02/1800Z 31.8N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  24H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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