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 927 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 252054
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018
 
 Rosa has become better organized this afternoon.  An earlier 1601
 UTC GMI microwave image showed impressive banding features in the
 south semicircle with a banding eye type feature wrapping three
 quarters around the center of circulation.  A blend of the Dvorak
 intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial intensity of
 45 kt for this advisory.
 
 Although there is some modest northeasterly shear impinging in the
 northeast side of the cyclone, the SHIPS intensity guidance
 indicate that this shear will diminish in 12 hours.  Subsequently,
 the SHIPS RI index and the DTOPS model indicate a relatively high
 probability of rapid intensification in 24 hours.  Accordingly, the
 NHC forecast calls for Rosa to become a hurricane in 12 hours based
 on these data.  Further strengthening through the 72 hour period is
 expected and is based on the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus.
 Beyond day 3, gradual weakening is expected due to increasing shear
 and slightly cooler waters.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290 at
 8 kt, and this general motion is forecast to continue through the
 next 3 days south of a mid-level ridge extending from northern
 Mexico westward over the eastern Pacific. In response to a
 mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest, Rosa should turn
 towards the northwest to north over the weekend.  It is worth noting
 that there is considerable along and cross-track spread in the track
 guidance beyond day 3.  Therefore, the official track forecast
 follows the TVCN consensus, which lies in between the left and right
 global model outlier clusters.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/2100Z 15.0N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  26/0600Z 15.4N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  27/0600Z 16.3N 113.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  27/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  28/1800Z 17.3N 118.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
  96H  29/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 120H  30/1800Z 21.7N 120.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Ramos/Roberts
 
 
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