060 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 251434
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018
 
 The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become better
 organized, with developing convective banding features.  Dvorak
 intensity estimates are 35 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB,
 respectively, and the current intensity estimate is set at 40 kt.
 Thus the system is being upgraded to a tropical storm.  Conditions
 favor continued strengthening, with Rosa likely to remain in an
 environment of warm waters, low shear, and a very moist mid-level
 air mass for the next several days.  The official intensity
 forecast is a little higher than the previous one, but below some of
 the objective guidance.  By late in the forecast period, a gradual
 weakening trend should commence as the system begins to move over
 slightly cooler waters.
 
 The storm is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt.  A mid-level
 ridge is forecast by the global models to remain in place to the
 north of Rosa through the middle part of the forecast period.  This
 would likely maintain a generally west-northwestward motion for the
 next 72 hours or so.  By days 4-5, the ridge is predicted to weaken
 which should result in a gradual turn toward the northwest and
 north-northwest.  The official track forecast is similar to that
 from the previous advisory and is close to the corrected dynamical
 model consensus, HCCA.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/1500Z 14.7N 108.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  26/0000Z 15.2N 109.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  26/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  27/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  27/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  28/1200Z 17.1N 116.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  30/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch