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 812 
 WTNT43 KNHC 240259
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005
  
 DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
 INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOVERING NEAR 930 MB THROUGHOUT
 THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAD
 STILL BEEN 120-125 KT. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SLIDELL
 LOUISIANA...LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA...AND HOUSTON TEXAS STILL DEPICT
 A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT IS JUST A FEW HOURS FROM REACHING THE
 COASTLINE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.  THE EYEWALL REMAINS
 INTACT AND INTENSE... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITH
 A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 20 N MI... SURROUNDED BY DENSE
 AND WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BANDING.  VELOCITIES FROM THE RADARS
 SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF MUCH AND SUPPORT
 THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 105 KT.  RITA REMAINS A FORMIDABLE MAJOR
 HURRICANE... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
 LAST FEW HOURS IT HAS OVER WATER... SO RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
 LANDFALL AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
 HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE BACK IN THE SYSTEM SHORTLY.
  
 RITA IS APPROACHING THE COAST ALONG A SLIGHTLY WOBBLY HEADING OF 325
 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS... JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.  ASIDE FROM THE COMMONLY OBSERVED
 WOBBLES... THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL... FOLLOWED
 BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
 NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
 SPEED.  BEYOND THEN... THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OF A
 STALL OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... AS RITA
 WILL LIKELY BECOME TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO ITS EAST
 AND WEST.  THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
 WELL INLAND AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER LANDFALL.
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0300Z 29.1N  93.2W   105 KT
  12HR VT     24/1200Z 30.1N  94.0W    85 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     25/0000Z 31.4N  94.5W    50 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     25/1200Z 32.8N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     26/0000Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     27/0000Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     28/0000Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     29/0000Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  
  
 $$
 
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