718 
 WTNT43 KNHC 281435
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011
 
 STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND PASSAGE OVER
 LAND HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON RINA. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED
 WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DISORGANIZED
 CONVECTION AND...BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND OBSERVATIONS
 FROM CANCUN MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
 IN ADDITION...THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH...AND A
 SECOND LOW-LEVEL VORITICTY MAXIMUM HAS FORMED ABOUT 90 N MI
 NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION IN THAT
 AREA. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT RINA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION WITH A 30-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 025/5. RINA IS CURRENTLY
 IN AN AREA OF LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
 OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
 MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF
 MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN RINA
 SOUTHWARD IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS.
 THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE
 SOUTHWARD TURN THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE NEW
 FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
 MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND NEAR THEM AFTER THAT.
 
 THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO CONTINUE
 OVER RINA FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THUS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
 TO DENEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THIS
 COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP
 NEAR THE CENTER. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST THE
 REMNANTS OF RINA TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 120 HOURS...SO THE NEW
 INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/1500Z 21.8N  86.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  29/0000Z 22.1N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  29/1200Z 22.1N  85.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  30/0000Z 21.4N  85.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  30/1200Z 20.6N  85.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  31/1200Z 19.5N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/1200Z 18.0N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN