572 
 WTNT43 KNHC 280241
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011
  
 RINA HAS BECOME A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE STRONG
 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN
 DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AGO...AND I WAS TEMPTED TO
 LOWER THE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
 CHECKING THE CYCLONE MEASURED SEVERAL FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WHICH
 SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS
 EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH
 LAND AS WELL. ON THIS BASIS...RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND
 THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION EARLY SATURDAY IF NOT SOONER. RINA WILL LIKELY BECOME A
 MEANDERING REMNANT LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48
 HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION.
  
 FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
 MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
 TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
 FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE GULF
 OF MEXICO...AND THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
 SOUTHWARD BACK TO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE IT ALL BEGAN. MOST OF THE
 TRACK MODELS PREFER THIS SOLUTION. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO
 THIS...IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONES. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/0300Z 20.5N  87.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 21.5N  87.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
  24H  29/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
  36H  29/1200Z 21.0N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  30/0000Z 20.0N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  31/0000Z 19.5N  86.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/0000Z 18.0N  86.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/0000Z 17.0N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA