311 
 WTNT43 KNHC 270835
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
 400 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011
  
 RINA HAS BECOME LESS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
 PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EXTENT OF COLD CLOUD TOPS DIMINISHING
 WITHIN A RAGGED-LOOKING CDO FEATURE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME
 WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND INDEED THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
 HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW BARELY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH
 WITH THE PEAK SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 62 KT.  THE INITIAL
 WIND SPEED IS SET...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 65 KT.  SOUTH-
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER RINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...
 AND THIS ALONG WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
 DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
 PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MORE WEAKENING THEN
 THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR DAYS 1-3 AND IS THE SAME AT DAYS 4-5.  THIS IS
 SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS MODEL FORECAST.
  
 RINA IS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
 AREA AT ABOUT 325/5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
 A NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IN 36-48 HOURS...THE
 NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
 DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF RINA.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY
 LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT PUSHES
 THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
 SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT NEARLY
 AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/0900Z 18.8N  86.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 19.8N  87.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 21.0N  87.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
  36H  28/1800Z 21.6N  86.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  29/0600Z 21.9N  86.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  30/0600Z 22.0N  85.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  31/0600Z 21.5N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  01/0600Z 21.0N  85.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH