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 337 
 WTNT43 KNHC 262046
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
 400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
  
 RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR...AND
 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
 THAT RINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
 THE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT AND
 SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 75-78 KT...WHILE AN EYEWALL
 DROPSONDE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS NEAR 70 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 OF 75 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
 SUGGEST THE VORTEX IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT...AS DROPSONDES AT THE
 FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED 25-30 KT SURFACE
 WINDS.  THIS TILT IS LIKELY DUE TO 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR DEPICTED IN ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
 WISCONSIN.
  
 RITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
 NOW 310/5.  THE FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY ARE UNCHANGED FOR THE
 FIRST 48 HOURS...WITH THE HURRICANE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
 NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE
 NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
 TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
 UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
 VERY PROBLEMATIC AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF HOW RINA
 INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND HOW LONG IT HOLDS TOGETHER
 VERTICALLY.  THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
 SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA
 STRAITS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND
 CANADIAN MODELS NOW FORECAST RINA OR ITS REMNANTS TO MAKE A HAIRPIN
 TURN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN.  THE
 GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND HWRF MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
 EXTREMES...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN
 SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
 FOLLOWS THESE MODELS AND IS THUS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK.  THIS LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS A LOW
 CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
  
 RINA IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT
 24-36 HOURS.  THIS...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...
 SUGGESTS IT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME.  AFTER 36
 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR AS THE
 MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
 LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD.  THIS
 SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO WEAKEN IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER WEAKENING
 THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS
 MODEL.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM COULD
 WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
 120 HOURS OR EARLIER.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/2100Z 18.2N  85.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  27/0600Z 18.7N  86.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  27/1800Z 20.0N  86.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  28/0600Z 21.4N  86.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
  48H  28/1800Z 22.5N  86.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER
  72H  29/1800Z 23.0N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  30/1800Z 22.5N  83.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 120H  31/1800Z 22.5N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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