943 
 WTNT43 KNHC 260249
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011
  
 THE EYE BECAME OBSCURED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
 CONSEQUENTLY T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE
 BIT. HOWEVER...LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE
 WHICH IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IN EARLIER DATA. A NOAA HURRICANE
 HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A LOWER MINIMUM
 PRESSURE OF 966 MB...BUT NEITHER SFMR OR FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
 INDICATE THAT RINA IS STRONGER THAN A FEW HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
 LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
 PREVAILING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...RINA COULD
 BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE REACHING EASTERN
 YUCATAN. THEREAFTER...RINA WILL FIND A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF
 STRONG SHEAR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH MOST
 LIKELY WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY.
  
 RINA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 3 KNOTS...TRAPPED SOUTH OF A
 STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BUT SOON...THE HIGH WILL
 SHIFT EASTWARD...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE...STILL VERY
 SLOWLY...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
 RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
 SEA AND BE VERY NEAR NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN IN 48 HOURS. THERE IS
 RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST SINCE
 MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS MOTION.
 BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS RINA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
 WESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE
 MODEL SPREAD INCREASES CONSIDERABLY. BY THEN...RINA EITHER RECURVES
 OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR MEANDERS NEAR YUCATAN AS A
 SHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST
 CALLS FOR RECURVATURE AND BRINGS A WEAKENING RINA NEAR THE NORTH
 COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC
 FORECAST.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/0300Z 17.5N  84.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  26/1200Z 17.9N  85.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  27/0000Z 19.0N  86.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  27/1200Z 20.2N  86.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  28/0000Z 21.3N  86.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  29/0000Z 23.0N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  30/0000Z 23.5N  83.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  31/0000Z 23.5N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA/BERG