901 
 WTNT43 KNHC 250246
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011
  
 RINA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED A
 NEARLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...
 WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN -70C. A 0137 UTC
 SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED A CLOSED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE IN THE
 DEEPEST CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE
 OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW NOTED ELSEWHERE.
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE LATEST
 ADT VALUE IS 4.3/73 KT. BASED UPON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.
  
 RINA IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
 AS IT TRAVERSES THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
 IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS
 FORECAST IS THAT DRY AIR LURKING IN THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT
 COULD POTENTIALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEYOND 60 HOURS...THE
 ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS
 FAVORABLE AS RINA ENCOUNTERS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
 ADDITIONAL DRY AIR IMPINGES ON THE CIRCULATION. THE CYCLONE COULD
 ALSO INTERACT WITH LAND AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN
 PENINSULA IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
 PREVIOUS ONE AND CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT
 TERM...FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
 THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER THIS TIME. IT
 SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST RINA TO
 DISSIPATE IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS/UKMET GLOBAL
 MODELS IMPLY MORE WEAKENING THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
 THE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA
 HAS MOVED LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/03. LITTLE
 CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS
 ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RINA WILL TURN TOWARD THE
 NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN 36-72 HOURS ON THE
 WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
 CARIBBEAN. AFTER THIS TIME...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
 TRACK GUIDANCE. THE HWRF/GFDL/UKMET ACCELERATE RINA NORTHEASTWARD
 OVER OR NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE GFS TURNS THE CYCLONE
 SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE MODEL SPREAD IS IN PART
 RELATED TO THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF RINA. A STRONGER
 CYCLONE...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL/HWRF...WOULD LIKELY BE STEERED
 BY THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHILE A WEAKER/SHALLOWER
 SYSTEM WOULD BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD IN LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. SINCE
 RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN
 FORECAST...THE OFFICIAL TRACK PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE WEAKER GFS
 SOLUTION.
 
 GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED
 RANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST
 REMAINS LOW.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/0300Z 17.2N  83.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  25/1200Z 17.3N  83.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  26/0000Z 17.5N  84.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  26/1200Z 17.9N  85.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  27/0000Z 18.7N  86.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  28/0000Z 20.9N  87.2W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
  96H  29/0000Z 22.2N  85.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  30/0000Z 22.0N  84.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN