999 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 190835
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
 200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015
 
 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E remains poorly organized.  While
 the convection has increased during the past several hours, the
 low-level center appears to be east of the southern end of the
 convective area due to ongoing southeasterly shear.  Satellite
 intensity estimates are 30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and thus the
 initial intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory.
 
 The initial motion is a rather uncertain 355/5.  A developing mid-
 to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the depression
 should result in a turn toward the west-northwest during the next
 24 hours, with this motion continuing through 48 hours.  After that
 time, a mid-latitude westerly trough moving into the northeastern
 Pacific should break the ridge with the depression turning
 northwestward and northward.  While the guidance is in general
 agreement with this scenario, after 72 hours there is still a
 significant spread as to where the depression may make the
 northward turn.  The new forecast track is a little to the south of
 the multi-model consensus through 72 hours, then is a little east of
 it after that time.
 
 The depression is expected to remain over warm sea surface
 temperatures for the next three days or so, and the current shear
 is forecast to subside to low values between 12-48 hours.  However,
 despite these apparently favorable conditions, the intensity
 guidance forecasts only modest strengthening during the next couple
 of days.  After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and
 decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause the cyclone to
 weaken.  The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous
 forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the guidance envelope.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/0900Z 13.7N 106.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  19/1800Z 14.4N 106.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  20/0600Z 15.2N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  20/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  21/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  22/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  23/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  24/0600Z 21.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven