085 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 172035
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
  
 RICK IS STILL INTENSIFYING...WITH THE 10 NM WIDE EYE BECOMING BETTER
 DEFINED AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COOLING DURING THE PAST FEW
 HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT
 AT 18Z...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT BASED ON
 THIS AND THE SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.  THE CIRRUS
 OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  QUIKSCAT DATA NEAR
 14Z INDICATED THAT RICK IS GROWING LARGER IN SIZE...AND THE WIND
 RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY.
  
 RICK SHOULD REMAIN IN A NEARLY-IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL
 WIND SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 18
 HRS OR SO. THUS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL AN EYEWALL
 REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS OR IT REACHES THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
 INTENSITY FOR THAT AREA. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS IN ABOUT 12
 HRS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT...GRADUALLY
 COOLING SSTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD START A STEADY
 WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
 LAND INTERACTION ALSO BECOMING A FACTOR DURING THE 96-120 HR
 PERIOD. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN
 INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED IN THE
 FORECAST.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  RICK
 REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH THE
 LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HRS AS A STRONG
 MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. 
 THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER RICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48
 HRS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE
 FROM 48-120 HRS.  THE 12Z DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST RICK TO MOVE
 FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER RECURVATURE THAN THEIR
 EARLIER RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF...GDFL...AND HWRF MODELS NOW
 FORECASTING RICK TO PASS NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
 MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY 96 HRS.  THE GFS...
 NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE SAME GENERAL TRACK BUT AT A
 SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED EASTWARD
 FROM AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR
 RICK TO BE NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 96 HR AND THEN
 MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 120 HR.  IF CURRENT
 MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
 TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.
  
 INTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
 SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
 HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/2100Z 14.8N 104.5W   130 KT
  12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.3N 106.5W   140 KT
  24HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N 108.8W   140 KT
  36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W   130 KT
  48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.9N 111.7W   120 KT
  72HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W   105 KT
  96HR VT     21/1800Z 22.5N 111.0W    90 KT
 120HR VT     22/1800Z 25.5N 108.5W    65 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN