236 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 171011
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE RICK SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
 315 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
  
 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND
 FORECAST INTENSITY OF RICK...WHICH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A
 REMARKABLE PACE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 BASED ON THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY ARE AT LEAST 6.0...AND THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 115 KT BASED ON THESE DATA.  FURTHER
 STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SHARPLY UPWARD. THE NEW
 OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK NEAR CATEGORY 5 STATUS IN 24 HOURS
 FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.  INNER CORE DYNAMICS MAY ALSO
 CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
 DAY OR TWO...AND THESE FLUCTUATIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. AT
 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE ALSO
 BEEN ADJUSTED THROUGH 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODIFICATIONS TO
 THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY.
  
 THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
 SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
 HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/1015Z 14.0N 102.3W   115 KT
  12HR VT     17/1800Z 14.3N 103.7W   130 KT
  24HR VT     18/0600Z 14.9N 106.1W   135 KT
  36HR VT     18/1800Z 15.7N 108.5W   130 KT
  48HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N 110.4W   120 KT
  72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N 112.7W   110 KT
  96HR VT     21/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W    95 KT
 120HR VT     22/0600Z 23.5N 112.0W    80 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI