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 401 
 WTNT44 KNHC 250846
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
 400 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD
 IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND HAS FALLEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE
 EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...AND THE INNER-
 CORE IS LOSING DEFINITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55
 KT...AND THAT COULD BE GENEROUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE TODAY AS THE STORM REMAINS INLAND. ALTHOUGH RICHARD IS
 FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24
 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT RE-STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
 MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR. THE
 SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE CYCLONE BY 72
 HOURS...THEREFORE...REMNANT LOW STATUS IS SHOWN AT THAT TIME.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
 DAY AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND
 NORTHEAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...RICHARD...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD
 TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
 THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
 ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS
 OTHERWISE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/0900Z 17.6N  89.6W    55 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.1N  90.7W    35 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.9N  91.8W    30 KT...OVER WATER
  36HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N  92.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER
  48HR VT     27/0600Z 21.1N  93.9W    25 KT...OVER WATER
  72HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
  
 
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