819 
 WTNT44 KNHC 242051
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
  
 RICHARD APPEARS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
 HURRICANE REPORTED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT EXITING
 THE EYE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED SFMR WIND SPEED
 WAS 69 KT.  HOWEVER...THE SFMR INSTRUMENT HAS ISSUES MEASURING THE
 SURFACE WINDS IN AREAS OF SHALLOW WATER SUCH AS IS THE CASE JUST
 OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED
 FROM A DROPSONDE WAS 981 MB.  BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
 CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE AND
 BELIZE RADAR IMAGES...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.  SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE COASTLINE IN A
 COUPLE OF HOURS...SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOW
 UNLIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  STEADY WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AFTER
 THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
 EMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A
 CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED STATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND STRONG
 SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.
  
 RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...OR
 ABOUT 285/11.  A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION OVER
 THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.    THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE
 DIVERGENT AFTER A DAY OR SO...REFLECTING AN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
 IN THE STEERING CURRENTS.  HOWEVER...SINCE RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO
 BE REDUCED TO A WEAK CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...IT SHOULD THEN BE
 STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
 SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH
 DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
 GUIDANCE SUITE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/2100Z 17.2N  88.0W    80 KT
  12HR VT     25/0600Z 17.6N  89.4W    60 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N  90.5W    40 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.7N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.5N  92.5W    25 KT...OVER WATER
  72HR VT     27/1800Z 21.3N  94.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     28/1800Z 23.0N  96.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH