367 
 WTNT44 KNHC 231458
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
  
 SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT RICHARD IS STRENGTHENING
 QUICKLY. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB...WITH
 FLIGHT LEVELS WINDS TO 72 KT AND SFMR VALUES TO 54 KT. THESE DATA
 SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
 APPARENTLY LIGHTENED FROM YESTERDAY WITH NO SIGN OF THE
 UNDERCUTTING BENEATH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW LAYER. GIVEN THE WARM
 WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
 IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE OF
 HONDURAS. THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS NOW SHOW RICHARD BECOMING A
 HURRICANE...THOUGH ODDLY THE HWRF/GFDL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A
 TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING BELOW THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS BECAUSE OF
 POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION. RICHARD IS NOT LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY
 OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...THUS THE NEW FORECAST
 WILL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
 THE GLOBAL MODELS. 
  
 AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE
 WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT.  A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED AS
 A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.
 THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
 FOR A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS...THEN
 INTO BELIZE IN 36-48 HOURS.  MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
 WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AT
 DAYS 3 AND 4...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS.   
  
 HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR BELIZE LATER TODAY.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 15.9N  83.5W    55 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N  84.7W    60 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.4N  86.3W    65 KT
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N  88.0W    70 KT
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N  89.6W    40 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N  94.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE