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 310 
 WTNT44 KNHC 230248
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010
 
 RICHARD REMAINS A RAGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.  THE
 CONVECTION IS IN POORLY DEFINED BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER...AND DATA
 FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV MISSION SHOWS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH
 EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...AN AIR FORCE
 RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE STORM HAS A
 LARGE AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE AIR
 FORCE PLANE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT AND
 SFMR-ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 35-40 KT.  BASED ON THESE AND
 EARLIER BUOY DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE TO
 THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THUS THE FORECAST TRACK IS
 ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
 FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A BUILDING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF
 OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RICHARD WESTWARD TO WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
 NEXT 72 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE
 EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
 WESTERN END OF THE GULF RIDGE. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS
 MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
 RIDGE AND HOW STRONG RICHARD MIGHT BE AFTER CROSSING BELIZE AND
 MEXICO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
 TRACK DURING THE FIRST 36 HR COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER
 THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS.
  
 WHILE RICHARD HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...
 THE G-IV DATA SHOW A BAND OF WESTERLY WINDS AT 300 MB BLOWING
 UNDER THE CIRRUS INTO THE STORM.  THESE WINDS ARE CREATING ABOUT 15
 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADVECTING VERY DRY UPPER-LEVEL AIR INTO
 THE CORE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO DIMINISH
 BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND IF THIS VERIFIES RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO
 STRENGTHEN.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING LESS
 DEVELOPMENT THAN DURING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES...AND THE GFDL
 NO LONGER FORECASTS RICHARD TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  BASED ON
 THIS...THE CURRENT STATE OF THE STORM...AND THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
 RICHARD INTERACTING WITH NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HR.  AFTER EMERGING
 INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG
 WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN.
  
 HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED FOR
 PORTIONS ON BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/0300Z 15.8N  82.4W    40 KT
  12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.8N  83.3W    40 KT
  24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N  84.8W    45 KT
  36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.4N  86.4W    55 KT
  48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N  88.1W    65 KT
  72HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N  92.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 120HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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