425 
 WTNT44 KNHC 222052
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010
  
 THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF RICHARD HAS SOMEWHAT
 DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
 SHRUNK AND BECOME DISTORTED...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT IN
 THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.  IN ADDITION...ASCAT DATA FROM
 1536 UTC CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION PRESENT ON THE LAST
 HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
 FROM THE STORM.   DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...NOAA BUOY 42057 HAS
 REPORTED PEAK ONE-MINUTE WINDS OF 35-37 KT DURING THE PAST FEW
 HOURS.  DVORAK VALUES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB... AND 61 KT
 FROM THE CIMSS ADT.  GIVEN THE ABOVE DATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
 SET BETWEEN THE BUOY AND THE SATELLITE DATA TO 40 KT.
  
 THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP
 CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER.  THE BEST
 ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST...AT
 ABOUT 4 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN
 ACCELERATING MOTION TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO
 RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER
 RIDGE...THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER...AND THE NHC
 FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
 NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO A
 TROUGH ERODING THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE.  
  
 AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONCERNED...RICHARD HAS
 STRUGGLED WITH DRY AIR AND SOME WESTERLY SHEAR MUCH LONGER THAN THE
 MODELS...AND FORECASTERS...EXPECTED.  VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO
 SUGGESTS SOME UNDERCUTTING OF THE CIRRUS LAYER...WHICH MATCHES UP
 WITH RECENT G-IV DROPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF RICHARD OF WESTERLY
 WINDS FROM 250-300 MB. THESE WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE
 GLOBAL MODELS TO REVERSE TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 THIS CHANGE MAY HERALD AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE...WHICH COULD BE
 RAPID IN NATURE GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST AND THE WARM
 DEEP WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE NHC FORECAST IS
 INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH AS
 THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH MAKES RICHARD A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
 LANDFALL. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO
 HOSTILE FOR MUCH REINTENSIFICATION OF RICHARD.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/2100Z 16.2N  81.7W    40 KT
  12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.2N  82.5W    45 KT
  24HR VT     23/1800Z 16.3N  83.7W    50 KT
  36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.7N  85.3W    60 KT
  48HR VT     24/1800Z 17.2N  86.9W    75 KT
  72HR VT     25/1800Z 18.2N  89.7W    45 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N  91.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 120HR VT     27/1800Z 22.0N  92.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE