857 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 300233
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013
 
 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS
 EVENING AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO FEEL THE IMPACT OF 25-30 KT OF
 SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTS
 THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITH POSSIBLE
 MULTIPLE VORTICITY CENTERS.  SINCE THERE IS NO DATA FROM THE
 CYCLONE CORE AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.  THIS COULD BE GENEROUS
 GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/6.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD MOVE
 GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAK
 STEERING CURRENTS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A
 TOUCH FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 A COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR...DECREASING SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO
 DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST
 IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP DURING THE
 MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM AND SLOW THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.  IF
 THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN...RAYMOND SHOULD DISSIPATE FASTER THAN
 CURRENTLY FORECAST.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/0300Z 19.1N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  30/1200Z 19.8N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  31/0000Z 20.4N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  31/1200Z 20.8N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  01/0000Z 21.0N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN