031 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 271433
 TCDEP2
  
 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
  
 SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE SHOWN THAT RAYMOND HAS A CLOSED
 AND WELL-DEFINED EYE...BUT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS MOSTLY BEEN
 OBSCURING THAT FEATURE IN CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY.  STILL...
 SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE RISEN TO T4.5/77 KT AND
 T4.0/65 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE LATEST UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
 ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES ARE 82 KT AND 77 KT.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED TO 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  
 
 SINCE RAYMOND WAS ESTIMATED TO HAVE HAD AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT ONLY
 18 HOURS AGO...THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID
 INTENSIFICATION.  THIS STRENGTHENING TREND COULD CONTINUE FOR A
 LITTLE LONGER WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...BUT
 DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
 NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LIKELY
 BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WHILE RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO A DRIER AND
 MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND COOLER WATERS LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. 
 THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT
 INTENSIFICATION TREND BUT THEN IS NEARLY IDENTICAL ON DAYS 2
 THROUGH 5.  THIS FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
 CONSENSUS ICON AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 RAYMOND IS STILL LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT
 THAT FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING
 MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9 KT...BUT RAYMOND SHOULD BE TURNING
 NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE
 TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER.  ONCE RAYMOND WEAKENS TOWARD THE LATTER
 PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
 EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHWARD DUE TO A WEAKER STEERING
 REGIME.  THE 06Z GFS RUN NOW AGREES WITH THE EARLIER 00Z ECMWF RUN
 IN SHOWING RAYMOND MAKING MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ON DAYS 3 THROUGH
 5...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE NOW THAT RAYMOND IS STRONGER THAN
 PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
 THEREFORE A LITTLE EAST AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...
 ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA
 STATE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/1500Z 14.2N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  28/0000Z 14.9N 116.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  28/1200Z 16.0N 117.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  29/0000Z 17.1N 117.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  29/1200Z 17.9N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  30/1200Z 18.8N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  31/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  01/1200Z 20.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG