845 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 251455
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013
  
 INFRARED AND FIRST-LIGHT GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWS RAYMOND TO HAVE
 A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES.
 ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST SSMIS MICROWAVE PICTURE APPEARS TO DEPICT
 DEVELOPING INNER CORE FEATURES.  THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT AT
 ADVISORY TIME...WHICH MATCHES A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES.
  
 DESPITE THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE CURRENT POSITION IS SOMEWHAT
 UNCERTAIN. THE MOTION IS ANALYZED AT 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT...AND
 RAYMOND IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS
 NORTHWEST.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
 NEXT TWO DAYS.  BY DAY THREE...RAYMOND WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED
 BY A DIGGING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
 NORTHWEST.  THIS COMPLEX TROUGH SHOULD BOTH TURN THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE NORTHWARD AS WELL AS INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
 ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.  BY DAY FOUR OR
 FIVE...RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO RECURVE OFF TOWARD THE
 NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A QUITE LOW LATITUDE...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL
 OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
 WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN PREVIOUSLY.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
 THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A THREE MODEL...
 GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM...BLEND AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCE
 MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.
  
 RAYMOND SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...AS IT IS
 MOVING OVER WARM 28C WATERS AND MOVING THROUGH A MOIST UNSTABLE
 ATMOSPHERE WITH VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...
 THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH RAYMOND FOR THE
 NEXT TWO DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
 SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
 NEXT 24 HOURS.  BY DAY THREE TO FOUR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
 INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWED SHORTLY IN TIME BY A DRIER MORE STABLE
 ATMOSPHERE AND COOLER SSTS.  AROUND DAY FIVE...THESE HOSTILE
 FACTORS MAY CAUSE RAYMOND BEGIN TO DECOUPLE WITH THE MID-LEVEL
 VORTEX SEPARATING FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
 CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/1500Z 13.7N 109.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  26/0000Z 13.5N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  26/1200Z 13.5N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  27/0000Z 13.5N 114.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  27/1200Z 13.7N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  28/1200Z 15.5N 118.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  29/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  30/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER LANDSEA