414 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 250233
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
 800 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2013
 
 RAYMOND HAS MADE A COMEBACK TONIGHT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP
 CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD
 PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
 ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE
 T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM THE
 UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND
 THE ECMWF...HAVE DONE A REMARKABLY GOOD JOB IN FORECASTING THE
 CHANGE FROM UNFAVORABLE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. NOW THAT
 THIS FAVORABLE PATTERN HAS MATERIALIZED...AS SEEN BY A WESTWARD
 EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO
 REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN IN A DAY OR SO OVER OPEN WATERS.
 THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND WITH THE UPWARD
 INTENSITY TREND SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE HWRF APPEARS TO BE
 ALONE IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE...KEEPING RAYMOND ON A GRADUAL STEADY
 DECAY OR WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER WATERS...WEAKENING
 SHOULD THEN BEGIN. 
 
 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO
 EXPAND AND IS FORCING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 265
 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE
 DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL KEEP
 RAYMOND ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO. BY DAY 4
 AND BEYOND...THE SAME APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL INDUCE THE
 SHEAR WILL ALSO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
 THEN SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE
 GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WESTWARD MOTION TROUGH DAY 3 OR
 SO...BUT AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH
 SOME MODELS KEEPING THE CYCLONE MEANDERING...AND OTHERS MOVING IT
 NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER. THE FIRST SOLUTION IS THE MOST LIKELY
 SCENARIO TO OCCUR SINCE BY THAT TIME...RAYMOND SHOULD BE WEAKER AND
 STEERED BY A MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/0300Z 14.6N 107.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  25/1200Z 14.5N 109.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  26/0000Z 14.0N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  26/1200Z 13.7N 113.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  27/0000Z 13.5N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  28/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  29/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  30/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA