946 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 212036
 TCDEP2
  
 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
 200 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
  
 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE
 MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT...EARLIER MICROWAVE AND
 GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY SMALL EYE AROUND 15Z...SO
 PERHAPS THE STORM HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACMENT CYCLE
 TODAY. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE T6.0/115 KT FROM SAB
 AND T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB...AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAYMOND IS NEAR ITS PEAK...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL
 REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND INNER-CORE DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO SHORT-TERM
 FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THAT ARE
 NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
 AFTER THAT TIME...AS THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
 RAYMOND MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE
 NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
 AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM MODEL.
 
 RAYMOND HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...AND LITTLE
 MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE
 STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO BRING
 RAYMOND NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
 SO...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW A SLOW SOUTHWARD OR
 SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK INDICATES LITTLE MOTION DURING
 THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SOME ERRATIC
 MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE
 GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
 CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE END
 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE NORTH/SOUTH
 SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD...SO
 CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST
 THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
 PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BY DAY 5. 
 
 REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS
 TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
 MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
 FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/2100Z 16.3N 102.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  22/0600Z 16.4N 102.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  22/1800Z 16.3N 102.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  23/0600Z 16.3N 102.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  23/1800Z 16.2N 103.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  24/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  25/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  26/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN