985 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 210845
 TCDEP2
  
 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
 200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
  
 RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
 SHOW A CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
 PATTERN SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT
 105 KT...FOLLOWING THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
 UW-CIMSS ADT. THIS MAKES RAYMOND A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...THE FIRST
 MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 2013 SEASON. IT IS
 INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS CYCLONE HAS EXHIBITED AN IMPRESSIVE
 PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING...AS IT WAS ONLY A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
 AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
  
 THE HURRICANE HAS COME TO A HALT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ABOUT 100
 N MI SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE
 COLLAPSED WITH A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND AND A RIDGE
 TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THESE
 WEAK CURRENTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION IS
 EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
 CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE
 MORE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...FORCING RAYMOND TO MOVE WESTWARD
 OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST 
 GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...KEEPING
 THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN
 FACT...GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS THE HURRICANE INLAND AND IF THIS
 TREND CONTINUES THE WARNINGS FOR MEXICO COULD BE ALTERED.
  
 RAYMOND COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
 INTENSITY CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL
 REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS. SLOW WEAKENING IS
 EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE
 AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
 OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING
 LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/0900Z 16.0N 102.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  21/1800Z 16.3N 102.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  22/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  22/1800Z 16.5N 102.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  23/0600Z 16.4N 102.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  24/0600Z 16.0N 104.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  25/0600Z 15.7N 106.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  26/0600Z 15.5N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA